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Summary:
- Bank of America expects Las Vegas Sands results to stay soft into early 2026, with hotel revenue still under pressure.
- Regional and local casinos look more resilient, while online sports betting remains active.
- Macau’s performance is solid for now, though tougher comparisons later in the year are making investors cautious.
In the context of Las Vegas Sands getting ready to release the first major fourth-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, Bank of America is painting a mixed picture across the industry.
Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley said,
We are modestly below the Street for Las Vegas, in line for Asia, and see a mixed bag for regionals
Kelley also pointed to a soft finish to the year, arguing that December data disappointed across online gaming, Las Vegas room revenue, and regional casinos. Nonetheless, the analyst believes local and regional markets could take advantage of fiscal stimuli and improved consumer conditions.
Bank of America estimates that fourth-quarter earnings for the sector came in about 1% below consensus overall and roughly 2% below expectations for MGM Resorts International.
Gaming revenue held up, while hotel performance continued to lag, with revenue per available room or visitation staying “weak at -6%/-5%, respectively”. Plus, Strip revenue per room dropped 12% in the last month of 2025, a figure that is worse than November’s decline.
Kelley still expects the first quarter to remain somewhat soft, even with the ConAgg convention, before comparisons ease later in the year.
Better Outlook for Casinos
The outlook is brighter for casinos that rely more on local customers. Kelley said Bank of America’s estimates for that segment are about 2% above consensus, supported by data showing steady local demand.
Q4 regional estimates sit 1% above consensus, with help from MGM and Boyd Gaming, with Penn Entertainment possibly feeling pressure from new competition in Louisiana. In parallel, same-store gaming revenue went up 4% YoY in October, then dipped into negative territory in November and December.
Online gaming keeps drawing attention, with Kelley explaining that 2026 has kicked off similarly to the way 2025 ended, with sports betting at the heart of investor talks.
In this regard, Bank of America is ahead of consensus on DraftKings but below it for FanDuel. Strong hold helped results, but softer betting handle in December and January has revived concerns.
In Macau, Bank of America’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings estimates are in line with the Street, with revenue rising 15% year over year, partially driven by MGM China.
For Marina Bay Sands, Kelley’s estimate of $705 million is 2% above consensus, helped by Formula 1 shifting into the fourth quarter. He values Las Vegas Sands at $70 per share, based on about 13 times 2026 EBITDAR, citing a slower recovery and higher capital spending as reasons for caution.
